Innovation

How do you think the overall automotive market would be in 2030 (India and global)?

Sep 07, 2018 | 1081 views

By: Pinaki Laskar

LinkedIn | Blog | www.fisheyebox.com

How do you think the overall automotive market would be in 2030 (India and global)? What is your view on what mobility would be then?

“Autonomous vehicles will be as important as the internet”.

By 2030, it is expected that 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road while there will be more than 250 million smart cars, cars connected to high-tech networks, sharing the road with them. Promises to free up our time, lower stress, make our roadways safer and improve transportation for us all.

The autonomous driving market is poised to grow to $77 billion by 2030, automakers and tech companies alike are already expanding quickly into this market through semi-autonomous vehicles.

Fort - Research has found that 84 percent of Indians and 78 percent of Chinese could see themselves owning an autonomous car, compared with only 40 percent of Americans and 30 percent of Britons.

“Self-driving transportation is one of the most exciting and important innovations of our time.”

Technology that is set to become a reality that’ll completely disrupt not just the way we drive, but the way we live.

In comparison to the myriad of bad behaviors a driver might exhibit behind the wheel, a computer is actually an ideal motorist. Since 81 percent of car crashes are the result of human error, computers would take a lot of danger out of the equation entirely. Although it's not clear to what extent lives would be saved.

But it's obvious that human driven cars come at a very high cost in terms of danger. The US Department of Transportation actually assigns a value to each human life is $9.2 million. Therefore, there would be a significant cost savings in many different venues like insurance costs and healthcare costs associated.

And Commuters worldwide could save a combined 1 billion hours every day once autonomous vehicles go main stream. Autonomous mobility promises to stem the declining access to public transport. Marginal and loss making routes will become viable without subsidy.

We here at Fisheyebox, are willing to bet that you’ve given at least a little thought to what that utopian future would be like napping, watching a Movie, or getting work done in the backseat while your car deals with traffic.

 

What would the level of penetration of autonomous driving and related technologies be in 2030, and going forward?

We define the Autonomous world as a future state when intelligent technology systems, operating without human participation, enable new business models in a more efficient society. Future transport is green and user-experience centric.

“Automated vehicles have the potential to dramatically improve road safety and revolutionize our transport systems."

We often see that it becomes impossible for those people to drive who are either without a limb or using prosthetic limbs. To make it easier for them there are cars with autonomous technology.

Car and ride-sharing also contribute to increased preference of vehicle access versus ownership. This is an essential foundation to the Autonomous World, when drivers are ousted in favor of self-driving vehicles, and riders are treated to more efficient routes, increased safety, and reduced transportation costs.

Derailing’ Trains will get solution, touted as a way to make Rail Transports safer. Future of Farming is autonomous tractor, ATL (Autonomous Track Loader) as being a big part of the future of construction, F1 Driverless Racing Car, Possibilities are endless.

Autonomous vehicles disruptions will impact every industry, not just transportation.

“Any man who can drive safely while kissing a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the attention it deserves.” ~Albert Einstein

 

In terms of design, strategy, IPs and manufacturing, how do you expect these areas to perform in 2030 and beyond?

It is very difficult to picture any motorized vehicle without a steering wheel. In the car industry, steering wheels are normal, even though they are on the opposite side of the vehicle in some countries. However, By 2030, MOST new cars will be made without rearview mirrors, horns, or emergency brakes. By 2030, they won’t have steering wheels or acceleration and brake pedals. They won’t need any of these things because they will be driving themselves.

We can IMAGINE total autonomy, Manual driving is outlawed. Our cars are better drivers than we ever were. And not only that, they coordinate with one another in an elegant choreography, threading through traffic with inches to spare. Parking becomes parkland, because no cars ever stay still for long, they stop only to recharge themselves as needed. If you choose, you can just hang out at home and let the robocars bring you everything you need.

"There are about 2 billion cars in the world and the total annual production capacity is about 100 million cars, which makes sense since the average life of a car before being totally scrapped is about 20 to 25 years," Musk said.

So the point at which we see autonomy appear will not be the point at which there is a massive societal impact on people because it will take a lot of time to make enough autonomous vehicles to disrupt. So that disruption will take place over about 20 years.

 

Could we expect research and development to take on new forms in the future? How so?

Technology changes remarkably fast now, though innovation may seem sudden, and hindsight underscores the many disruptors and countless iteration that precede a revolution. One day we'll wake up, be in a fully autonomous world - one with new types of transport, new cityscapes, new rules and new services and wonder how we got there. Autonomous will change the way we get around in the coming years and decades, and they’re also set to change our cities and environments.

As excitement continues to build over the future of autonomous vehicles, the concept of the flyingcar will become more discerning taste, The Fifth Element.

The coming of age challenges that can be solved with breakthroughs in deep learning and artificial intelligence, AI has been central to sci-fi films for more than 50 years, it has not lived up to the hype in the real world. But now, with unprecedented interest and investment, AI is coming of age and will lift off the autonomous industry.

However Technology trends will revolutionize how industry players respond to changing consumer behavior, develop partnerships, and drive transformational change.

I'm really looking forward to a time when generations after us look back and say how ridiculous it was that humans were driving cars.